Giving you all your relevant and irrelevant NBA news one pick & roll at a time.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Who Gets the 8th seed in the West?
With the final week of NBA games now looming and the final spot in the western playoffs still up for grabs, it's time to start looking forward to the second season. The Utah Jazz and LA Lakers are battling it out for that final seed, with Utah holding onto a 1/2 game lead with just one more win than the Lakers. Let's take a look at each teams remaining schedule to see who has the best shot of sneaking into the postseason.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Mock Draft Number One: The Lottery
I'm a big fan of drafts, I love the NFL draft, I love doing movie drafts on our podcast, but most of all I love the NBA draft. This is the first mock draft I have ever done so bear with me. This particular mock was created exceedingly early in the process, draft order has yet to be determined, for now we are taking the inverse of the current standings to determine the draft order, this will be corrected after the draft lottery. This mock draft contains only the lottery teams, look for the second half of the first round tomorrow. So without further ado, here is the first of what will be many mock drafts.
1. Charlotte: Nerlens Noel PF/C University of Kentucky
To me Noel is the player with the most potential in the entire draft. Despite his knee injury he is the most likely to come into the league and be a force immediately (provided he has recovered from his knee injury). With recent draft picks in Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist the Bobcats have shown to place a high value on defense. Adding Noel to their young core will give Charlotte a stout defense to build around.
2. Orlando: Marcus Smart PG Oklahoma State
In a little over a year's time the Magic went from a team with Dwight Howard and a bunch of scrubs (his words not mine) to one with good young talent at every position. Every position, that is except point guard. Smart is a big combo guard with the ability to play both back court positions and the tools to be an elite defender at either spot. Sure his shot selection and inconsistent play hurt his stock, but in the end his upside will be too hard to pass on at a position of need.
3. Cleveland: Otto Porter SF Georgetown
Despite Cleveland's superlative point guard (Kyrie Irving) they are a team that struggles to score in an efficient manner (28th in field goal percentage). The palindrome is as polished a scorer as there is in college basketball. He will be able to come in right away and give the Cavs a stabilizing presence in the half court. McLemore might have a higher upside, but Porter is more ready to contribute right away. With all the young pieces on this team adding another project like McLemore is not ideal.
4. Phoenix: Ben McLemore SG Kansas
The Suns would be ecstatic if McLemore fell to them at the fourth spot in the draft. B Mac has as high an upside as any player in the draft and could become Phoenix's new franchise player. The problem with his high ceiling is, it isn't always evident game in and game out. During Kansas' season he went from looking like the best player in the country to someone you didn't realize was on the court. If he can become more consistent with age he will be the steal of the draft at four.
5. Detroit: Victor Oladipo SG Indiana
All season Detroit has had one glaring hole, wing play. Oladipo would instantly improve the Pistons perimeter defense as well as add energy to a Pistons team that looked listless at times during the season. Combining him with Andre Drummond would give the Pistons two good defenders and fast break finishers to build around.
6. New Orleans: Alex Len C Maryland
Len is the type of big skilled center that rarely comes around. With a solid array of post moves he is able to score in a variety of ways, or at least he would be able to if he had the strength to get deep post position. For all his skill, Len did not live up to his potential in college, getting consistently pushed out of the paint by smaller stronger players. However, after some time in an NBA weight room Len could combine with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans their front court of the next 10 years.
7. Sacramento: Trey Burke PG Michigan
Whether they end up being the Kings of Sacramento or the Supersonics of Seattle, they are a team that lacks cohesion. Although Isaiah Thomas has played well this year his lack of size has hurt Sacto defensively. Trey Burke will be able to come in and immediately regulate Sacramento's offense (to the point that it no longer looks like an AAU team launching the first shot that presents itself) while giving up little on the defensive end.
8. Oklahoma State (via Toronto): Anthony Bennett PF UNLV
An embarrassment of riches would be the best way to describe the fact that OKC will have a top 10 pick in the draft this year. Anthony Bennett can do it all, score from inside and out, rebound, block shots and run the floor. With his natural talent Bennett's most glaring weakness is his propensity to float through some of his games. He is only 6'7 which is not ideal for a power forward, but his wing span and girth allow him to be effective at the four. Being drafted by an established team will provide him with good habits and allow OKC to produce another elite player.
9. Minnesota: Shabazz Muhamad SG UCLA
Last offseason, the T-Wolves identified their biggest need as wing production, signing Adrei Kirilenko and trading their first round pick for Chase Budinger. AK47 could opt out of the last year of his contract in favor of signing a longer extension somewhere else, leaving Minny with the same hole they filled last offseason. Shabazz Muhammad will provide Minnesota with the wing scoring they need to fill this hole.
10. Washington: Cody Zeller C Indiana
Before the season started Zeller was expected to vie for the top pick in the 2013 NBA draft. What happened? In his sophomore year struggled to score over some of the longer college centers, and more importantly he didn't become more assertive . His freshman year, Zeller showed flashes of being a dominant big man, this year he has shown the same flashes but not any more regularly than the previous year. This inability to dominate showed that he is probably more of a solid starter than a franchise player to build around.
11. Philadelphia: Steven Adams C Pittsburgh
Steven Adams is a big strong athletic center. With so few true centers in the league these days teams will bite on the potential of any seven footer that can run down the court without falling over. Adams has the athleticism and size to be an elite center but is incredibly raw. With Andrew Bynum's future up in the air the Sixers might be willing to gamble on Adams boundless potential
12. Portland: Isaiah Austin PF/C Baylor
Austin is ultra athletic, seven feet tall with soft touch all the way out to the three point line. He has everything you would want in a prospect except girth. At 220 Austin is far too slight to play center in the NBA. Although he still needs some refinement on his defensive rotations and shot selection, I expect him to correct these flaws, put on weight, and be a main stay in Portland for years to come.
13. Dallas: Michael Carter-Williams PG Syracuse
The Mavs have started ancient journeyman Mike James for most of their post all star break games, this more than anything should tell you that they need a point guard. MCW might not last this long, but if he does Dallas will be extremely excited. Carter-Williams was the best player on Syracuse's final four team and should be an excellent pro.
14. LA Lakers: Rudy Gobert C France
You simply can not teach length and at 7'2 with a 7'6 wing span Gobert has length in spades. His game film indicates an elite talent, until you realize he is playing against poor competition that he literally dwarfs. With Dwight Howard being a free agent after the year the Lakers would love to grab a big man with elite potential.
Look for the second half of the first round tomorrow.
1. Charlotte: Nerlens Noel PF/C University of Kentucky
To me Noel is the player with the most potential in the entire draft. Despite his knee injury he is the most likely to come into the league and be a force immediately (provided he has recovered from his knee injury). With recent draft picks in Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist the Bobcats have shown to place a high value on defense. Adding Noel to their young core will give Charlotte a stout defense to build around.
2. Orlando: Marcus Smart PG Oklahoma State
In a little over a year's time the Magic went from a team with Dwight Howard and a bunch of scrubs (his words not mine) to one with good young talent at every position. Every position, that is except point guard. Smart is a big combo guard with the ability to play both back court positions and the tools to be an elite defender at either spot. Sure his shot selection and inconsistent play hurt his stock, but in the end his upside will be too hard to pass on at a position of need.
3. Cleveland: Otto Porter SF Georgetown
Despite Cleveland's superlative point guard (Kyrie Irving) they are a team that struggles to score in an efficient manner (28th in field goal percentage). The palindrome is as polished a scorer as there is in college basketball. He will be able to come in right away and give the Cavs a stabilizing presence in the half court. McLemore might have a higher upside, but Porter is more ready to contribute right away. With all the young pieces on this team adding another project like McLemore is not ideal.
4. Phoenix: Ben McLemore SG Kansas
The Suns would be ecstatic if McLemore fell to them at the fourth spot in the draft. B Mac has as high an upside as any player in the draft and could become Phoenix's new franchise player. The problem with his high ceiling is, it isn't always evident game in and game out. During Kansas' season he went from looking like the best player in the country to someone you didn't realize was on the court. If he can become more consistent with age he will be the steal of the draft at four.
5. Detroit: Victor Oladipo SG Indiana
All season Detroit has had one glaring hole, wing play. Oladipo would instantly improve the Pistons perimeter defense as well as add energy to a Pistons team that looked listless at times during the season. Combining him with Andre Drummond would give the Pistons two good defenders and fast break finishers to build around.
6. New Orleans: Alex Len C Maryland
Len is the type of big skilled center that rarely comes around. With a solid array of post moves he is able to score in a variety of ways, or at least he would be able to if he had the strength to get deep post position. For all his skill, Len did not live up to his potential in college, getting consistently pushed out of the paint by smaller stronger players. However, after some time in an NBA weight room Len could combine with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans their front court of the next 10 years.
7. Sacramento: Trey Burke PG Michigan
Whether they end up being the Kings of Sacramento or the Supersonics of Seattle, they are a team that lacks cohesion. Although Isaiah Thomas has played well this year his lack of size has hurt Sacto defensively. Trey Burke will be able to come in and immediately regulate Sacramento's offense (to the point that it no longer looks like an AAU team launching the first shot that presents itself) while giving up little on the defensive end.
8. Oklahoma State (via Toronto): Anthony Bennett PF UNLV
An embarrassment of riches would be the best way to describe the fact that OKC will have a top 10 pick in the draft this year. Anthony Bennett can do it all, score from inside and out, rebound, block shots and run the floor. With his natural talent Bennett's most glaring weakness is his propensity to float through some of his games. He is only 6'7 which is not ideal for a power forward, but his wing span and girth allow him to be effective at the four. Being drafted by an established team will provide him with good habits and allow OKC to produce another elite player.
9. Minnesota: Shabazz Muhamad SG UCLA
Last offseason, the T-Wolves identified their biggest need as wing production, signing Adrei Kirilenko and trading their first round pick for Chase Budinger. AK47 could opt out of the last year of his contract in favor of signing a longer extension somewhere else, leaving Minny with the same hole they filled last offseason. Shabazz Muhammad will provide Minnesota with the wing scoring they need to fill this hole.
10. Washington: Cody Zeller C Indiana
Before the season started Zeller was expected to vie for the top pick in the 2013 NBA draft. What happened? In his sophomore year struggled to score over some of the longer college centers, and more importantly he didn't become more assertive . His freshman year, Zeller showed flashes of being a dominant big man, this year he has shown the same flashes but not any more regularly than the previous year. This inability to dominate showed that he is probably more of a solid starter than a franchise player to build around.
11. Philadelphia: Steven Adams C Pittsburgh
Steven Adams is a big strong athletic center. With so few true centers in the league these days teams will bite on the potential of any seven footer that can run down the court without falling over. Adams has the athleticism and size to be an elite center but is incredibly raw. With Andrew Bynum's future up in the air the Sixers might be willing to gamble on Adams boundless potential
12. Portland: Isaiah Austin PF/C Baylor
Austin is ultra athletic, seven feet tall with soft touch all the way out to the three point line. He has everything you would want in a prospect except girth. At 220 Austin is far too slight to play center in the NBA. Although he still needs some refinement on his defensive rotations and shot selection, I expect him to correct these flaws, put on weight, and be a main stay in Portland for years to come.
13. Dallas: Michael Carter-Williams PG Syracuse
The Mavs have started ancient journeyman Mike James for most of their post all star break games, this more than anything should tell you that they need a point guard. MCW might not last this long, but if he does Dallas will be extremely excited. Carter-Williams was the best player on Syracuse's final four team and should be an excellent pro.
14. LA Lakers: Rudy Gobert C France
You simply can not teach length and at 7'2 with a 7'6 wing span Gobert has length in spades. His game film indicates an elite talent, until you realize he is playing against poor competition that he literally dwarfs. With Dwight Howard being a free agent after the year the Lakers would love to grab a big man with elite potential.
Look for the second half of the first round tomorrow.
Thursday, April 4, 2013
NBA Draft Big Board Top 40
Welcome to the Latest Edition of the PickandPopDiaries NBA Draft big board! This is my biggest yet, 40 prospects deep. Tomorrow, fellow blogger Evan Javel will have out the first of our Mock Drafts. This list is how I look at players NBA skill sets, not the order of the draft, as each team has their own needs. Enjoy, comment, and come back for more as we get ready for the postseason and the NBA Draft.
1. Ben McLemore, Kansas SG 6-5
By this point I'm sure everyone is familiar with the Kansas star freshman. McLemore's combination of incredible athleticism, a sweet shooting stroke and strong defense have us all thinking he could be a future all star. His inconsistencies though have left some doubt about his place atop the draft board, but I believe his skill set and good health should place him above Noel for most teams. Games like his monster effort against West Virginia on March 2nd when he dropped 36 on 12-15 shooting including 5-6 from deep speak to his potential. His 2 point, 0-9 from the field performance in Kansas' 3rd round win in the tourney vs UNC show his inconsistencies.
2. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky PF/C 6-11
An ACL tear has not limited his value much at all on NBA draft boards. The shot blocking phenom has incredible athleticism and energy. He will likely never be a big time scorer at the next level, but what he brings to a team is far more valuable than that. If he could shoot well, I'd compare him to KG. He has incredible passion and plays the game as hard as anyone. Any team that drafts him will be making a great choice, he could easily go number 1.
1. Ben McLemore, Kansas SG 6-5
By this point I'm sure everyone is familiar with the Kansas star freshman. McLemore's combination of incredible athleticism, a sweet shooting stroke and strong defense have us all thinking he could be a future all star. His inconsistencies though have left some doubt about his place atop the draft board, but I believe his skill set and good health should place him above Noel for most teams. Games like his monster effort against West Virginia on March 2nd when he dropped 36 on 12-15 shooting including 5-6 from deep speak to his potential. His 2 point, 0-9 from the field performance in Kansas' 3rd round win in the tourney vs UNC show his inconsistencies.
2. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky PF/C 6-11
An ACL tear has not limited his value much at all on NBA draft boards. The shot blocking phenom has incredible athleticism and energy. He will likely never be a big time scorer at the next level, but what he brings to a team is far more valuable than that. If he could shoot well, I'd compare him to KG. He has incredible passion and plays the game as hard as anyone. Any team that drafts him will be making a great choice, he could easily go number 1.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Andre Drummond Air-balled back to back free throws
Andre Drummond has put together a great rookie season despite missing a significant amount of time due to a back injury. His averages of 7.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in just under 20 minutes a game have Detroit fans drooling at his skyhigh potential. While we have seen his immense talent come out in force in his rookie campaign, we have also seen his biggest weakness become exposed. Andre Drummond may be the worst free throw shooter in NBA history. At a woeful 35% clip, he is the easiest target for the hack-a-player strategy. When thinking of the worst free throw shooters in league history we always think of Chris Dudley, Bruce Bowen, Shaq, Ben Wallace, Wilt the stilt and Andris Biedrins, but Drummond may be the worst of them all. Last night he had the unfortunate privilege of airballing back to back attempts:
While the future is bright for this young fella, he has to improve this part of his game if he wants to be a 35 minute a night center. Glad to see him back and healthy though, I can't wait to see his improvement for next season.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Defensive Player Of The Year: The Finalists
Every year the NBA all defensive team is littered with all stars that happen to be good defenders, rather than the best defenders in the league (for example Kobe Bryant two years ago). When the voters aren't overrating defenders based on their offensive prowess, they often elect players who gamble to create turnovers rather than making the good defensive play that consistently help their team (i.e. Rajon Rondo). No matter what your bias of choice, it is easy to be swayed towards overrating a players defense based on reasons that do not help his team's defense. Luckily, for us, the viewing public, advanced statistics have provided us with an unbiased (althoug sometimes flawed) way of evaluating defense. Taking these biases into account, combining advanced statistics and my amateur scouting skills I will attempt to clear the murky waters that is NBA defense, and predict the finalists for Defensive Player of the Year.
Larry Sanders
Important Stats:
3.0 Blocks Per Game (leads league), 98 defensive rating (Fourth in NBA min. 1500 minutes), 8.2 block percentage (leads league min 1500 minutes), .57 Points Per Possession allowed against Isolations (11th in NBA)
Larry Sanders is the the gold standard for the development of project big men. After looking more or less completely lost in his first two years, he has been able to harness his athleticism to game changing levels.
His defense is the best example of the flaw in my favorite statistic, defensive rating. Defensive Rating or points allowed per 100 possessions is flawed because it is heavily dependent on teammates, allowing some average defenders to be the statistical beneficiary of good teammates. Although, Sander does play with some solid front court defenders, his back court teammates either can't or won't stop anyone, there-by hurting his defensive rating.
Not only do Monta Ellis (106 Defensive Rating) and Brandon Jennings (108 defensive rating) play matador defense, but their constant barrage of long two's clanking off the back iron, lead to an increase in run out opportunities for opponents. When the Black Hole brothers bother to engage defensively they often go for steals, essentially removing themselves from their rotations. In other words his guard teammates make life much harder on Sanders. Larry Sanders' shot blocking prowess is routinely the only thing deterring opposing guards from a dribble drive parade to the rim, and the Bucks would be lost without him.
Sanders' probably won't win the defensive player of the year since it routinely goes to players on the top defensive teams. Despite this he will be in the conversation for years to come with his never ending motor and can do attitude.
Joakim Noah
Important Stats:
98 defensive rating (tied with Sanders), 4 shots have been attempted against him closing out on a pick and roll (0 baskets made), 2.2 Blocks Per Game (6th in NBA), 11.4 Rebounds Per Game (7th in NBA), 4.7 Win Shares (2nd in NBA)
The most important statistic for Joakim Noah (besides hair length) is not an individual one. The Chicago Bulls are third in the league at .85 points per possession allowed make no mistake, Noah is the driving force behind that number. What Noah has done leading a team comprised of many veteran castoffs to the third best defense, is truly remarkable.
What's more impressive is the minutes per game he produces this stellar defensive for. While Noah is tied with Larry Sanders as far as defensive rating, he does so playing 37.7 minutes per game to Sander's 27.
Although Noah is no slouch at 2.2 Blocks per game his contributions are more prevalent in preventing shots from even being attempted. His defensive rotations especially on the pick and roll are among the best in the games history. This is difficult to measure statistically since this is obvious to opposing teams, who simply avoid running the pick and roll against him.
Every basketball player knows that no defensive possession is complete without securing a defensive rebound (unless you force a turnover). Noah's ability to recover to the paint after pressuring the ball handler in the pick and roll, shows agility uncommon among men his size. After recovering ,his proficiency in ending defensive positions by securing the ball should also be considered when discussing defensive MVP.
Like Sanders, Noahs love for the defensive end of the court is infectious, often leading to bouts of awkward dancing/celebrations.
Avery Bradley
Important Stats:
.69 Points Per Possession (12th in NBA), only 23 attempts by opponents guarded while coming off screens, Celtics defense is 1.6 Point Per Possession better with him on the court, 102.1 D rating with Bradley injured 98.1 after he returned.
Maybe Bradley's inclusion on this list has to do with a bias of mine, (I did write a post on him being my favorite Celtic, after all). However, the reason he is my favorite player does coincide with why he is a defensive player of the year candidate, he gives 100% effort all the time, especially on defense.
If a statistic was kept on times a defender guarded his man full court, I suspect Bradley would lead it by a wide margin. With the talent level in the NBA, picking up a ball handler for the entire length of the court is usually a recipe for disaster. In Bradley's case his quickness strength and effort make it a disaster for opposing offenses. His ball pressure forces opponents to start their offense with half the shot clock already gone, making it exceedingly more easy for his teammates to get stops.
His elite defense is not solely a function of his on ball pressure, Bradley is as complete a wing defender as there is in the NBA. If you watch closely, you will realize that his ability to navagate opposing screens is actually more impressive than his full court pressure. His skill at following his man through reminds one of a running back, in that he turns his shoulders to get through the smallest of spaces to prevent his charge from seperating.
A lot of Boston fans came to the conclusion that Rajon Rondo was the problem when the team went on a winning streak after his injury. Another explanation for their strong play during this stretch was that Avery Bradley was finally healthy, allowing the Celtics to return to the defense that made them elite. After returning Bradley has increased Boston's defense by 4 points per 100 possessions. This happened despite the loss of Rondo, who was an all NBA defensive first teamer the year previous.
Unfortunately, I was not able to find a humorous gif to pair with Bradley. Amusing on court antics just aren't his thing. Avery is a quiet unassuming guy, who turns on opponents with the tenacity of a pit bull, which happens to be the moniker Bradley and Courtney Lee took to when they became Celtics starters. Nope, no amusing dances here, just mean, nasty, tough defense.
Paul George
Important Stats:
5.9 Defensive Win Shares (1st in NBA), 96 Defensive Rating (3rd in NBA min 1500 minutes), 3 points per 100 possessions less are allowed when he is on the court
Usually when a player makes the leap offensively after being considered a very good defender early in his career, everyone assumes his defense makes the leap as well. Whether or not this is true, depends on the case, but regardless scoring more points usually will help a player's defensive reputation by causing more media attention to be brought his way. In this case, George might not be one of the best defensive players, but being the best player on the best defensive team will certainly garner him votes.
That is not to say George's numbers indicate that he is every bit the defender as any names on this list. His number one ranking in defensive win shares, indicates that his defense has created more wins for his team than any others. Although this isn't the greatest metric, being ranked first in any advanced defensive statistic is a feat.
Defensively he is behind only Tim Duncan in rating. However, Tim Duncan being in the twilight of his career (i.e. playing less games and minutes) will preclude him from getting many all defensive votes. Roy Hibbert has the same defensive rating as George, but rarely are two players from the same team finalists for DPoY. All things being equal, the voters will go with the better offensive players, in this case the edge goes to George.
Paul George is a freak of nature. WIth the length of a power forward but the quickness of a shooting guard, he is able to guard multiple positions, often taking the other team's best player and making life difficult for him. His defensive instincts aren't elite but most of the time it doesn't matter due to his unique athletic gifts. The Scary part is, George has only scratched the surface of what he will be as a defender in the NBA. With better positioning on defensive rotations in the future, I'm sure I'll be able to find a better gif than him blocking a helpless, ground bound (i.e. white) JJ Redick.
Chris Paul
Important stats:
2.4 Steals per game (1st in NBA), Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan's defensive rating:101
Fans love steals, pretty much every single year the finalist for the defensive player of the year is tops in the league in steals. Chris Paul leads the league in steals, especially those of the spectacular variety. He makes the type of defensive plays that stand out in the minds of anyone to watch the game, this alone will get him votes.
Besides being probably the best in the game at pilfering the rock. Paul has lead the transition to the Clippers being an excellent defensive team. Without his instruction Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, would probably still be running around on defense like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead, both have taken a leap forward defensively, posting career bests in defensive ratings. Griffin's rise has been all the more impressive when you consider he lacks elite length or width to alter shots and occupy a wide area in the paint.
Despite Cp3's defensive rating numbers being far from elite, he is an elite defender. In his case Lob City's constant track meet pace makes it more difficult to produce elite defensive numbers. Don't make the mistake of looking at his 102 rating and believing him to be a slightly above average defender, he is the engine that makes this team go both on defense and the offense their defense creates. Realize that almost every run out seen on sports center was created by the strong team defense that Paul has instituted in LA.
Although Paul, is one of the best in the game at picking pockets, and has orchestrated the defensive improvements in a number of young players, he is not perfect. Occasionally he is guilty of a flop, apparently overacting in the Hollywood area is contagious.
Just missing the cut: Lebron James, Tyson Chandler. Roy Hibbert, Tim Duncan, Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol. All of these players fall into one of the following categories that excluded them from the finalist list: being too old/injured, not bringing enough to the table offensively to get noticed making the spectacular play at the expense of sound defensive rotations or having an offense so potent that consistent defensive effort isn't needed.
Larry Sanders
Important Stats:
3.0 Blocks Per Game (leads league), 98 defensive rating (Fourth in NBA min. 1500 minutes), 8.2 block percentage (leads league min 1500 minutes), .57 Points Per Possession allowed against Isolations (11th in NBA)
Larry Sanders is the the gold standard for the development of project big men. After looking more or less completely lost in his first two years, he has been able to harness his athleticism to game changing levels.
His defense is the best example of the flaw in my favorite statistic, defensive rating. Defensive Rating or points allowed per 100 possessions is flawed because it is heavily dependent on teammates, allowing some average defenders to be the statistical beneficiary of good teammates. Although, Sander does play with some solid front court defenders, his back court teammates either can't or won't stop anyone, there-by hurting his defensive rating.
Not only do Monta Ellis (106 Defensive Rating) and Brandon Jennings (108 defensive rating) play matador defense, but their constant barrage of long two's clanking off the back iron, lead to an increase in run out opportunities for opponents. When the Black Hole brothers bother to engage defensively they often go for steals, essentially removing themselves from their rotations. In other words his guard teammates make life much harder on Sanders. Larry Sanders' shot blocking prowess is routinely the only thing deterring opposing guards from a dribble drive parade to the rim, and the Bucks would be lost without him.
Sanders' probably won't win the defensive player of the year since it routinely goes to players on the top defensive teams. Despite this he will be in the conversation for years to come with his never ending motor and can do attitude.
Joakim Noah
Important Stats:
98 defensive rating (tied with Sanders), 4 shots have been attempted against him closing out on a pick and roll (0 baskets made), 2.2 Blocks Per Game (6th in NBA), 11.4 Rebounds Per Game (7th in NBA), 4.7 Win Shares (2nd in NBA)
The most important statistic for Joakim Noah (besides hair length) is not an individual one. The Chicago Bulls are third in the league at .85 points per possession allowed make no mistake, Noah is the driving force behind that number. What Noah has done leading a team comprised of many veteran castoffs to the third best defense, is truly remarkable.
What's more impressive is the minutes per game he produces this stellar defensive for. While Noah is tied with Larry Sanders as far as defensive rating, he does so playing 37.7 minutes per game to Sander's 27.
Although Noah is no slouch at 2.2 Blocks per game his contributions are more prevalent in preventing shots from even being attempted. His defensive rotations especially on the pick and roll are among the best in the games history. This is difficult to measure statistically since this is obvious to opposing teams, who simply avoid running the pick and roll against him.
Every basketball player knows that no defensive possession is complete without securing a defensive rebound (unless you force a turnover). Noah's ability to recover to the paint after pressuring the ball handler in the pick and roll, shows agility uncommon among men his size. After recovering ,his proficiency in ending defensive positions by securing the ball should also be considered when discussing defensive MVP.
Like Sanders, Noahs love for the defensive end of the court is infectious, often leading to bouts of awkward dancing/celebrations.
Avery Bradley
Important Stats:
.69 Points Per Possession (12th in NBA), only 23 attempts by opponents guarded while coming off screens, Celtics defense is 1.6 Point Per Possession better with him on the court, 102.1 D rating with Bradley injured 98.1 after he returned.
Maybe Bradley's inclusion on this list has to do with a bias of mine, (I did write a post on him being my favorite Celtic, after all). However, the reason he is my favorite player does coincide with why he is a defensive player of the year candidate, he gives 100% effort all the time, especially on defense.
If a statistic was kept on times a defender guarded his man full court, I suspect Bradley would lead it by a wide margin. With the talent level in the NBA, picking up a ball handler for the entire length of the court is usually a recipe for disaster. In Bradley's case his quickness strength and effort make it a disaster for opposing offenses. His ball pressure forces opponents to start their offense with half the shot clock already gone, making it exceedingly more easy for his teammates to get stops.
His elite defense is not solely a function of his on ball pressure, Bradley is as complete a wing defender as there is in the NBA. If you watch closely, you will realize that his ability to navagate opposing screens is actually more impressive than his full court pressure. His skill at following his man through reminds one of a running back, in that he turns his shoulders to get through the smallest of spaces to prevent his charge from seperating.
A lot of Boston fans came to the conclusion that Rajon Rondo was the problem when the team went on a winning streak after his injury. Another explanation for their strong play during this stretch was that Avery Bradley was finally healthy, allowing the Celtics to return to the defense that made them elite. After returning Bradley has increased Boston's defense by 4 points per 100 possessions. This happened despite the loss of Rondo, who was an all NBA defensive first teamer the year previous.
Unfortunately, I was not able to find a humorous gif to pair with Bradley. Amusing on court antics just aren't his thing. Avery is a quiet unassuming guy, who turns on opponents with the tenacity of a pit bull, which happens to be the moniker Bradley and Courtney Lee took to when they became Celtics starters. Nope, no amusing dances here, just mean, nasty, tough defense.
Paul George
Important Stats:
5.9 Defensive Win Shares (1st in NBA), 96 Defensive Rating (3rd in NBA min 1500 minutes), 3 points per 100 possessions less are allowed when he is on the court
Usually when a player makes the leap offensively after being considered a very good defender early in his career, everyone assumes his defense makes the leap as well. Whether or not this is true, depends on the case, but regardless scoring more points usually will help a player's defensive reputation by causing more media attention to be brought his way. In this case, George might not be one of the best defensive players, but being the best player on the best defensive team will certainly garner him votes.
That is not to say George's numbers indicate that he is every bit the defender as any names on this list. His number one ranking in defensive win shares, indicates that his defense has created more wins for his team than any others. Although this isn't the greatest metric, being ranked first in any advanced defensive statistic is a feat.
Defensively he is behind only Tim Duncan in rating. However, Tim Duncan being in the twilight of his career (i.e. playing less games and minutes) will preclude him from getting many all defensive votes. Roy Hibbert has the same defensive rating as George, but rarely are two players from the same team finalists for DPoY. All things being equal, the voters will go with the better offensive players, in this case the edge goes to George.
Paul George is a freak of nature. WIth the length of a power forward but the quickness of a shooting guard, he is able to guard multiple positions, often taking the other team's best player and making life difficult for him. His defensive instincts aren't elite but most of the time it doesn't matter due to his unique athletic gifts. The Scary part is, George has only scratched the surface of what he will be as a defender in the NBA. With better positioning on defensive rotations in the future, I'm sure I'll be able to find a better gif than him blocking a helpless, ground bound (i.e. white) JJ Redick.
Chris Paul
Important stats:
2.4 Steals per game (1st in NBA), Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan's defensive rating:101
Fans love steals, pretty much every single year the finalist for the defensive player of the year is tops in the league in steals. Chris Paul leads the league in steals, especially those of the spectacular variety. He makes the type of defensive plays that stand out in the minds of anyone to watch the game, this alone will get him votes.
Besides being probably the best in the game at pilfering the rock. Paul has lead the transition to the Clippers being an excellent defensive team. Without his instruction Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, would probably still be running around on defense like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead, both have taken a leap forward defensively, posting career bests in defensive ratings. Griffin's rise has been all the more impressive when you consider he lacks elite length or width to alter shots and occupy a wide area in the paint.
Despite Cp3's defensive rating numbers being far from elite, he is an elite defender. In his case Lob City's constant track meet pace makes it more difficult to produce elite defensive numbers. Don't make the mistake of looking at his 102 rating and believing him to be a slightly above average defender, he is the engine that makes this team go both on defense and the offense their defense creates. Realize that almost every run out seen on sports center was created by the strong team defense that Paul has instituted in LA.
Although Paul, is one of the best in the game at picking pockets, and has orchestrated the defensive improvements in a number of young players, he is not perfect. Occasionally he is guilty of a flop, apparently overacting in the Hollywood area is contagious.
Just missing the cut: Lebron James, Tyson Chandler. Roy Hibbert, Tim Duncan, Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol. All of these players fall into one of the following categories that excluded them from the finalist list: being too old/injured, not bringing enough to the table offensively to get noticed making the spectacular play at the expense of sound defensive rotations or having an offense so potent that consistent defensive effort isn't needed.
Friday, March 22, 2013
JaVale McGee's Block Would Make Bill Russell Happy
I'm not sure about all of you, but as a NBA diehard and a Celtics fan in particular I try to get my hands on as much Bill Russell footage as possible. Whether it's game film, practicing with Red or interviews, I soak up as much knowledge as I can from the winningest player to ever compete in American professional sports. His 11 championships in 13 seasons is mind blowing and don't give me crap about how his teammates were better than everyone else's, because that is just fiction that ignorant NBA fans like to spout. The man is the epitome of an unselfish winner, a socially conscience role model, and the owner of the best laugh in human history.
Well now that I've introduced my admiration for Russell, one of the things he has often discussed in interviews is his shot blocking. He said he did it differently than players before or since because he tried to either catch the ball or keep it in play so that his teammates could corral the lose ball. Last night, JaVale McGee made a great block, showing soft hands and, dare I say, high basketball IQ. Anyway, the block:
Any excuse to mention the GREAT Bill Russell....
-Andy Lipson, Senior Blogger
TheNBAninja on twitter
 |
| 11 Rings, 10 Fingers |
Well now that I've introduced my admiration for Russell, one of the things he has often discussed in interviews is his shot blocking. He said he did it differently than players before or since because he tried to either catch the ball or keep it in play so that his teammates could corral the lose ball. Last night, JaVale McGee made a great block, showing soft hands and, dare I say, high basketball IQ. Anyway, the block:
Any excuse to mention the GREAT Bill Russell....
-Andy Lipson, Senior Blogger
TheNBAninja on twitter
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Week 21 Power Rankings
The Heat keep winning, and the rest of the league is wondering who can stop them. Here are your week 21 power rankings:
(Oh my word are we good at basketball!)
1. Miami Heat (52-14)
-24 and counting.
After the 17 point comeback and the 27 point comeback in Cleveland, you wonder
how anyone can beat this time once, let alone four times in the playoffs. (BF)
2. San Antonio Spurs
(51-16)
-Still getting it
done as the season hits its final stretch. The Spurs are clearly the 2nd
best team in the NBA behind Miami, but they face 7 straight opponents with a
record above .500%. Big stretch ahead for Pop, TD and crew. (AL)
3. Oklahoma City
Thunder (50-17)
-Two top 5
players, a defensive player of the year candidate and OKC miraculously isn’t
dominating every team not named Miami. Hopefully they are able to focus on
getting better shots down the stretch, because if they continue to settle for
jumpers in the playoffs, their playoff run will be a short one. (EJ)
4. Denver Nuggets
(46-22)
-Denver has
won 13 straight without an all-star. Suddenly the possibility of a three seed
in the playoffs is not out of reach. Although the Nuggets probably will come up
short, look for the team to take an OKC type leap after their playoff run this
year. (EJ)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (45-21)
-This team is capable
of beating anyone. Its a pleasure to watch Gasol and Randolph dominate the
interior every single game. (AL)
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